Sensitivity of simulating Typhoon Haiyan (2013) using WRF: the role of cumulus convection, surface flux parameterizations, spectral nudging, and initial and boundary conditions

Abstract. Typhoon (TY) Haiyan was one of the most intense and highly destructive tropical cyclones (TCs) to affect Philippines. As such, it is regarded as a baseline for extreme TC hazards. Improving simulation such TCs will not only improve forecasting but also be essential in understanding potential sensitivity future with climate change. In this study, we investigate effects model configuration simulating TY using Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) Model. Sensitivity experiments were conducted by systematically altering choice cumulus schemes, surface flux options, spectral nudging. addition European Centre Medium-Range Forecasts Reanalysis fifth-generation (ERA5) single high-resolution realization initial boundary conditions, used 4 10 lower-resolution ERA5 data assimilation system (EDA) ensemble members conditions. Results indicate high level trade-off between Kain–Fritsch Tiedtke schemes that have been mentioned past studies The scheme simulates track better (with lower mean direct positional error, DPE, 33 km), while produces stronger intensities (by 15 hPa minimum sea pressure). Spectral nudging resulted reduction DPE 20 km, varying options improvement simulated maximum sustained winds up m s−1. Simulations EDA conditions revealed low having less spread than simulations different parameterization schemes. We highlight advantage an parameterizations take into account uncertainty intensity cyclones.